Fertility rate on decline in India: Is it headed the alarming South Korea way?

In 2023, South Korea reached a shocking new milestone in its demographic trajectory–its fertility rate plummeted to an unprecedented low of 0.72 children per woman. This rate, far below the 2.1 replacement level necessary to maintain a stable population, signals an impending crisis. While South Korea’s struggle with demographic decline is severe, it also serves as an early warning for other countries, particularly India, which is on a somewhat slower but equally concerning path.
South Korea’s rapid decline in fertility has serious implications for the nation’s future. Experts predict that if the current trend persists, South Korea’s population could shrink by half within the next 50 years. This demographic shift is not merely about numbers; it signals a transformation in the workforce and an ageing society. A shrinking younger population and an expanding elderly cohort will create a host of economic challenges.
South Korea’s demographic crisis is part of a wider global trend. Fertility rates are falling across much of the world, particularly in developed countries. Although the global population exceeded 8 billion in 2022, the fertility rate is expected to decline to around 2.1 by 2050–just enough to replace the current generation. However, many developed countries, particularly in Europe and East Asia, are already below replacement levels.
India, currently the world’s most populous country, is also experiencing a decline in fertility rates. From a high of 6.18 children per woman in 1950, the fertility rate is projected to fall to 1.29 by 2050, dipping below the replacement rate of 2.1. While the pace of India’s demographic transition is slower than that of South Korea, the decline in fertility is nonetheless a cause for concern.
Several factors are contributing to India’s declining fertility rate, making it more difficult for families to have children:
As both South Korea and India face demographic shifts, experts suggest several strategies to manage the potential challenges:
By 2050, India could face a situation where the elderly population outnumbers children. This would undermine India’s demographic advantage, potentially destabilising its economy and social structure. Without interventions to manage these shifts, India may find itself grappling with a similar set of challenges as South Korea and Japan, where an ageing population and shrinking workforce hinder economic growth and social stability.
India’s demographic shift, though occurring more slowly than South Korea’s, is a critical issue that warrants immediate attention. Balancing population growth with economic stability will be key to ensuring that India avoids the pitfalls of a rapidly ageing society. As South Korea’s fertility crisis demonstrates, countries must adapt their policies and structures to cope with the inevitable changes in population dynamics. India, with its large and youthful population, still has a window of opportunity to take action before its demographic situation becomes as precarious as South Korea’s.